San Carlos, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

697
FXUS66 KMTR 211101
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
401 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Sunday morning.
Otherwise quiet weather on tap after that with near normal
temperatures.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

The forecast remains on track with an upper level low tracking into
the Great Basin, deepening the larger upper level trough. Flow
will remain onshore with gusty winds picking back up by mid to
late morning. The pressure gradient looks to support another gusty
day with gusts peaking 25-35 mph, with gusts up to 40 mph, or
locally higher. for areas along the coast or at wind prone gaps
and passes. The forecast looks to remain dry, especially for areas
above the marine layer where recovery is expected to be poor. The
marine layer should be around 1500-2000ft. Given these conditions
and cured grasses and dried shrubbery, elevated fire weather
countdowns will continue.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM PDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Saturday evening into Sunday morning, winds look to remain breezy
before beginning to ease. Upper level troughing looks hold, though a
perturbation forms causing the through to deepen a bit more over
Central CA. This then looks to essentially park itself over CA and
NV through midweek with more zonal flow returning mid to late week.
Weather should generally be more typical for this time of year,
seasonable temperatures, nighttime and morning stratus, and
generally quiet weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1006 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR through the TAF period. Interior winds are becoming more
moderate while winds along the coast are reducing but will still be
breezy and gusty. However, winds aloft remain strong for much of the
night, causing LLWS concerns, specifically at STS, which will have
strong winds at 1000 ft AGL. Winds aloft and at the surface reduce
further into Saturday morning, easing LLWS concerns. Winds build
across the region again into Saturday afternoon, but gusts won`t be
as strong as the Friday afternoon winds. The widespread breezy
conditions linger along the coast and in the North Bay valleys into
Saturday night, but ease for more interior areas.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds and gusts are
reducing but are still strong. Expect gusts to cut off and winds to
reduce slightly into early Saturday, keeping winds moderate through
the morning and into the early afternoon. Gusty winds return for
Saturday afternoon with around 30 kt gusts on top of 24 kt winds.
These winds and gusts reduce into the early night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy and
gusty winds last into the night before reducing, becoming moderate
for MRY, but still seeing some southwest breezes at SNS. Cloud cover
looks to form just outside of MRY in the late night and early
morning to the south and east, but does not look to fill over MRY.
Skies clear into the mid morning. Breezy winds return in the mid
afternoon and reduce again that night.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 917 PM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Strong gusts and rough seas are producing hazardous marine
conditions continue through the first half of Sunday before winds
reduce. Seas look to be slower to ease but will improve into the
next work week. Breezy but less strong winds linger for the first
part of the next work week as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today across the
interior becoming more widespread on Saturday, with RH values
around 30% expected across the interior of the East Bay south
through the Gabilan Range, along with the Santa Lucia mountains
this afternoon. Gusty winds above the marine layer and elevated
interior locations will once again be around 25 to 40 mph with
less coverage today than Thursday. Brief periods of critical fire
weather conditions are possible with daytime relative humidities
of 15 to 25% in the interior. However, continuing marine layer
influence, especially during the night, and the fact that winds
remain onshore, mean that widespread critical fire conditions do
not develop across the district. Gusty winds begin to subside
somewhat on Saturday, but the upper level pattern will lead to
more northerly winds developing across the region. As with
Thursday`s fire weather threat, widespread critical fire weather
conditions are not expected within the district, although the fire
weather threat will increase once again for areas closer to the
Central Valley. The fire weather threat will continue to diminish
Sunday into the early part of next week with the gusty winds
further relaxing, although humidity values in the interior will be
slow to rise.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Sunday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Sarment

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